The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has raised interest rates by just a quarter point, to 1.25 per cent. This was the fifth increase in as many meetings, but still leaves rates near historic lows. In my view, this was a mistake. This decision is hard to square with April’s consumer price inflation … Continue reading Bank of England falls further behind in race to tame inflation
Category: Applied economics
No, sterling is still in no danger of becoming an ‘emerging market currency’
Every now and again someone – often Kamal Sharma from Bank of America (BofA) – warns that sterling is at risk of being downgraded to ‘emerging market’ status. This is lapped up and gleefully retweeted by anyone with an axe to grind against Brexit, or Boris Johnson.,, However, as Sharma himself rightly said in his … Continue reading No, sterling is still in no danger of becoming an ‘emerging market currency’
An online sales tax would be more trouble than it is worth
The UK government has been consulting on the concept of an ‘online sales tax’, or OST, which could raise £1-2 billion annually to help pay for a reduction in business rates for physical retailers. I submitted a response to the consultation, which is available here... ost-consultation-response-20-may-2022-julian-jessopDownload
Weak consumer confidence doesn’t necessarily signal recession
If you believe the media coverage of the latest consumer confidence surveys, household spending is set to collapse under the weight of the cost of living crisis, dragging the UK economy into a deep recession. But how reliable are these signals? As always, it is worth digging past the headlines. The GfK measure of consumer … Continue reading Weak consumer confidence doesn’t necessarily signal recession
Plain-speaking Economics 