The Spectator has published a SAGE paper outlining a ‘reasonable worst case’ scenario leading to an additional 85,000 Covid deaths in the UK, even with some partial mitigation. It’s hard to know what to make of this figure without a better understanding of what would happen if the government did nothing. (The paper assumed that … Continue reading Lockdowns fail the cost-benefit test
Author: julianhjessop
How far will UK unemployment rise?
The planned closure of the original job retention scheme (CJRS) at the end of October has focused attention again on the prospects for unemployment. A ‘top down’ approach (based on GDP) suggests that UK unemployment could rise to more than 3 million, or 10% of the workforce. But a less pessimistic ‘bottom up’ approach suggests … Continue reading How far will UK unemployment rise?
Some facts on poverty in the UK
FYI, here are some hard data on UK poverty, with links to the original sources (unfiltered by pro/anti-Tory newspapers, think tanks, or UN rapporteurs...). First, trends in inequality and child poverty in the UK (before the pandemic, obviously, but also before the surge in government spending on job subsidies and welfare payments). (Source) Second, a … Continue reading Some facts on poverty in the UK
How much should we worry about UK government debt?
Another month, another set of scary numbers on the public finances: the UK government borrowed an additional £36 billion in September and total public debt rose to £2,060 billion, or around 103.5% of national income (GDP). But there is still no need to panic. For a start, the figures are entirely as expected. If anything, … Continue reading How much should we worry about UK government debt?
Plain-speaking Economics 