In the early stages of the Iran crisis the markets priced in a relatively benign scenario. The conflict was expected to be short, lasting days if not weeks, with limited fallout for energy prices and for the global economy. A month on, this has proved to be far too optimistic. Indeed, the future looks increasingly … Continue reading Two scenarios: “TACO”, or “Trumpageddon”?
Tag: oil
Red Sea crisis is unlikely to blow inflation off course
The disruption to shipping through the Red Sea – and the possibility of a further escalation of the Middle East crisis – are serious threats to the global economy. Nonetheless, the wider fallout should be limited. UK inflation might sink a little more slowly than it would otherwise have done, but it should continue to … Continue reading Red Sea crisis is unlikely to blow inflation off course
No, our inflation problem is not due to Brexit
It is so much simpler to interpret the UK economy if you attribute every single problem to Brexit. But it is also wrong. Last week, for example, the EU statistics agency Eurostat released preliminary data suggesting that consumer price inflation in the euro area fell from 8.5pc in February to ‘just’ 6.9pc in March, including a … Continue reading No, our inflation problem is not due to Brexit
Why Sunak is (still) right to reject a windfall tax on energy companies
The Labour Party and LibDems are continuing to push hard for a ‘one-off’ windfall tax on the profits of North Sea oil and gas companies. These businesses are indeed likely to make more money than even they had expected, thanks to the surge in global energy prices. The European Commission has also supported the idea … Continue reading Why Sunak is (still) right to reject a windfall tax on energy companies
Plain-speaking Economics 