Tag: MPC

Two forecasts for 2024: 2% inflation in April and 4% interest rates by year-end

The tick up in UK CPI inflation to 4.0% in December last year was an unwelcome surprise, but one small miss in one month’s data does not change the big picture. For a start, inflation is still lower than the Bank of England had been forecasting. The November Monetary Policy Report assumed that inflation would … Continue reading Two forecasts for 2024: 2% inflation in April and 4% interest rates by year-end →

‘Economic Overview’ (presentation)

In case of wider interest, here are the slides from a presentation I made yesterday to the Shadow Monetary Policy Committee, hosted by the IEA. The SMPC is a group of independent economists whose purpose is to monitor the decisions of the Bank of England’s official Monetary Policy Committee and to make policy recommendations of … Continue reading ‘Economic Overview’ (presentation) →

Rate cuts are coming, but the markets may have to force the Bank’s hand

The Bank of England’s decision to leave interest rates on hold this week was no surprise. However, there is still little sign that policymakers are thinking of cutting rates any time soon, despite stagnant growth and falling inflation. Indeed, three of the nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted again for another quarter … Continue reading Rate cuts are coming, but the markets may have to force the Bank’s hand →