Tag: MPC

Bank of England edges towards a summer rate cut

The Monetary Policy Committee’s decision to leave interest rates on hold at 5.25% this week was unsurprising, but there were some welcome hints that cuts are coming soon. The market reaction was consistent with the slight dovish tilt: 2-5 year government bond yields fell about 5 basis points (these correlate closely with the cost of … Continue reading Bank of England edges towards a summer rate cut →

Two forecasts for 2024: 2% inflation in April and 4% interest rates by year-end

The tick up in UK CPI inflation to 4.0% in December last year was an unwelcome surprise, but one small miss in one month’s data does not change the big picture. For a start, inflation is still lower than the Bank of England had been forecasting. The November Monetary Policy Report assumed that inflation would … Continue reading Two forecasts for 2024: 2% inflation in April and 4% interest rates by year-end →

‘Economic Overview’ (presentation)

In case of wider interest, here are the slides from a presentation I made yesterday to the Shadow Monetary Policy Committee, hosted by the IEA. The SMPC is a group of independent economists whose purpose is to monitor the decisions of the Bank of England’s official Monetary Policy Committee and to make policy recommendations of … Continue reading ‘Economic Overview’ (presentation) →