The planned closure of the original job retention scheme (CJRS) at the end of October has focused attention again on the prospects for unemployment. A ‘top down’ approach (based on GDP) suggests that UK unemployment could rise to more than 3 million, or 10% of the workforce. But a less pessimistic ‘bottom up’ approach suggests … Continue reading How far will UK unemployment rise?
Category: Labour markets
A quick dive into the UK labour market data
If you are trying to predict the outlook for unemployment it is, of course, essential to get the starting point right. This blog therefore runs through the latest available official data and employment surveys. A follow-up piece will outline my own forecasts. The pandemic has raised question marks over all the usual measures of unemployment … Continue reading A quick dive into the UK labour market data
Is the UK heading for a ‘tsunami’ of job losses?
Today’s headlines understandably focus on the latest rise in unemployment, especially among the young. Losing a job is potentially a life-changer for many people. But it is no shock that the UK labour market has weakened given the depth of the Covid recession. The real news is that the deterioration is not as bad as … Continue reading Is the UK heading for a ‘tsunami’ of job losses?
Home working choices shouldn’t be the government’s business
I can understand why the government is launching a campaign to encourage people to go back to work. Its own dire warnings about the importance of staying at home had contributed to a climate of fear that perhaps only the government itself can now undo. But there is also a danger that attempts to replicate … Continue reading Home working choices shouldn’t be the government’s business
Plain-speaking Economics 