Another month, another set of scary numbers on the public finances: the UK government borrowed an additional £36 billion in September and total public debt rose to £2,060 billion, or around 103.5% of national income (GDP). But there is still no need to panic. For a start, the figures are entirely as expected. If anything, … Continue reading How much should we worry about UK government debt?
Author: julianhjessop
Is there any case for negative interest rates?
It’s hard to add much to the debate over whether or not the Bank of England (BoE) should cut its key interest rate, currently just 0.1%, below zero. The case against negative interest rates has been well made by David Smith, Liam Halligan and Peter Warburton, among many others, including MPC veterans such as Andrew … Continue reading Is there any case for negative interest rates?
Fiscal and monetary policies in a time of Covid
Here’s a presentation I gave on 19th October (to A-level economics and business students) on fiscal and monetary policies in the UK, covering topics such as the impact of Covid on the public finances, whether taxes will have to rise to pay for it, whether the BoE should ease further, the pros and cons of … Continue reading Fiscal and monetary policies in a time of Covid
A quick dive into the UK labour market data
If you are trying to predict the outlook for unemployment it is, of course, essential to get the starting point right. This blog therefore runs through the latest available official data and employment surveys. A follow-up piece will outline my own forecasts. The pandemic has raised question marks over all the usual measures of unemployment … Continue reading A quick dive into the UK labour market data
