Did Remain win the European elections?

No.

results here

 

Ok, you’d probably like a little bit more than that. A surprising number of anti-Brexit commentators were quick to claim that Remain did indeed win the EU elections, even though the Brexit Party secured the largest share of the vote and the most seats. Their thinking was explained by Ian Dunt, editor of Politics.co.uk, in a blog titled European elections: Remain triumphant

dunt

Tony Blair put on a similar spin, saying ‘the Brexit Party may have done well, but take their vote share together with UKIP’s and it comes to less than that of the parties in favour of remaining in the EU.’

I think this is, to borrow a campaign term, ‘bollocks’. You can’t just ignore the votes for other parties who are in favour of leaving the EU, namely the Conservative and Labour parties. To be fair, surveys do suggest that these two parties have the least clear policies on Brexit in the eyes of the public. Nonetheless, they should surely be included as pro-Brexit when interpreting the European election results – for the simple reason that this is the platform on which they stood.

This was crystal clear in the case of the Tories. Labour’s position was more ambivalent but still best described as ‘Leave with a deal and perhaps a second referendum’, rather than ‘Remain’. Otherwise, why did so many prominent Labour Remainers choose to support the LibDems instead of their own party? And why did the LibDem’s own campaign literature put Labour firmly in the pro-Brexit box…?

lib dem leafltet.PNG

Despite this, some Remainers still want to divvy up the votes for the Conservatives and Labour parties into Leave or Remain according to whatever the latest opinion polls say about how their supporters might vote in another referendum. This approach is disingenuous, because it is mixing apples and oranges – you should either use actual votes, or opinion poll evidence, but not some arbitrary mishmash of the two.

It is also inconsistent. Why assume that every LibDem, Green or nationalist voter is anti-Brexit, but only a proportion of Tory and/or Labour voters? Brexit was of course the dominant issue in these elections, but it was not the only one. It’s perfectly plausible to imagine that an SNP voter might want a fully independent Scotland to leave both the UK and the EU. Or that someone thinking that climate change was a more important issue than Brexit might still decide to vote Green, even if they would back Leave in a single-issue referendum on EU membership.

Indeed, YouGov analysis of the 2016 referendum found that roughly a third of people who voted LibDem in the 2015 General Election voted to leave the EU, and a fifth of Greens. Perhaps more surprisingly, the latest YouGov polling (copied below) found that 14% of people who voted LibDem in the 2017 GE would still vote Leave if there were another referendum. Of course, these are not necessarily the same people who voted LibDem in the latest EU elections, but it is likely that there are still a significant number of Brexiteers among them. Even if just 5% of LibDem voters would back Leave, that’s another 1% of the electorate who should be counted as pro-Brexit rather than anti.

yougov alpha

There is also a strong case for excluding the votes of citizens from the rest of the EU, most of whom presumably supported anti-Brexit parties in the European elections but would not be eligible to vote in another referendum on membership itself.

However, this could all become needlessly complicated (all the more so if you try to second guess what form of Brexit those voters supporting Leave parties might favour). I’d therefore keep it simple and just allocate all votes according to each party’s official position. Counting both the Conservative and Labour parties as pro-Brexit (as the LibDems themselves insisted), this gives a clear victory for Leave, with nearly 58% of the vote going to the Brexit Party, UKIP, Conservatives or Labour.

So ‘no’ again, Remain did not win.

One thought on “Did Remain win the European elections?

  1. At best 40% voted for 2nd referendum ! Says it all ! No good at maths, Remainers ?! But of that 40%, a poll suggests only 38% knew what Change.UK stood for, & 33% of SNP voters are leavers, & Green voters generally vote for green issues. & EU cars & pesticides kill people even now ! I voted LibDem in council elections !!!

    Like

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